Hi Hubnet
I see the logic behind your strategy but you may be missing great opportunities of a decent collect by using the FAV as an anchor.
I dont play trifectas on a regular basis (only on big races with very big fields and generally risk the FAV) but perhaps past experiences may assist you
1. Bet on races with 10+ runners only very little value in small fields unless you are taking multiple units of combinations but overall poor value.
2. Use Top 2 rated runners (Orange Band) as the winners, add in 3rd and 4th rated runners for 2nd (including any equal rated runners), add in 5th,6th for 3rd (including any equal rated runners), This can be expanded to take a maximum of 60% of the field size (rounded up) for 3rd EG 10 runners = 6 11 runners = 6.6 out to 7 12 = 7 13= 8 and so on. Another option is to take the runners that are close together in the markets and cut off whre a price gap appears EG 6th rated = 14/1 7th rated = 20/1 8th rated = 50/1 you would cut off at 7th rated irrespective of field size.
Never be concerned if the fav does not figure in your trifecta, thats where the results are. The screen shot below will give you some indication of the value outside the FAV which unfortunately in this case fell into 3rd place cutting out Proud Falcon(12/1). Trifecta paid over $5,000 and the Pick 4 almost $45,000 with Proud falcon running 4th. Not much good to me but one very happy RR client had 2 full units so a great result for him (boxed top 6 as he usualy does)
In the past I have found trifectas a very slow "bleed to death" and unless you are fortunate enough to join in at the right time, you may get long run of outs which can diminish ones confidence and put great strain on your intestinal fortitude.
As I said above, I can see the merit given the number of big priced runners that are rated on the
www.raceratings.com.au website and that run a place (in the last few weeks have had several run 2nd or 3rd paying upwards of 20/1 for a place, these put enormous value into the trifecta), I suppose there may be some joy in it for you.
all the best