Given that each track has its own characteristics, using a “generic time” as most form analysis software uses, there is always a question of accuracy. Using Track Specific Par times will be more accurate. Example: Oakbank is a tight turning track where good times are rarely run, using a generic time for 1400m of approximately 83.00, any runner that runs slower than that will be penalized and a low rating awarded. With the Track Specific Par Time for 1400m being 86.82, any horse running 86.00 will be severely penalized under the old format when in fact it has run better than par for that track and distance and warrants a much higher CIS rating.
The example below highlights the variances at various tracks using track specific par times, Bold Line’s Oakbank run where CIS is 52.2 and the old method would have allocated 41.9 new rating under CIS old rating under ALT) The runs are not always under valued, there are many occasions where the CIS rating has been over valued and a far greater rating has been allocated. This also distorts the final ratings as runners are considered that should not have been and generally at the expense of a better performed runner.
The use of Best Form with 10 start form has also proved to be a more accurate guide in addition the obvious availability of additional position in running, more accurate sectional times, steward’s reports, barrier trial results, form for NZ and HK. With the much improved CIS rating, looking at more than 5 runs allows a better Peak Run to be selected by going back 10 runs.
The impact on the overall ratings is significant both in giving a more accurate CIS rating for past performances which in turn are used to create the BASE RATING. With the introduction of the “New Bet Selector” a more accurate CIS rating will be generated which will lead to an improved Base Rating. It’s a natural progression that has a major impact on the creation of the ratings prices. The significance is that with the improved initial rating, the ratings have been brought closer together and leading chances identified.
